The SP 500 Index may be coming off its best week since March 9, but long-time bull Art Hogan doesn’t believe the market’s wild swings are safely in the past.
B. Riley FBR’s chief market strategist predicts stocks will retest to their October 29 correction lows, he recently told CNBC.
“We are going to see one more test before we escape back up into bullish territory — probably the middle of November and into December,” he said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
He expected U.S.-China trade tensions, which whipsawed stocks on Friday, will be the overwhelming factor in the next leg down. President Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jingping at the G20 Summit in Argentina next month, amid conflicting statements from the administration on whether progress had been made between the world’s two largest economies.
“The most difficult headwind for this market to get over is China,” Hogan said, making clear that his case is contingent on how long the trade war lasts — and whether it intensifies.
“The most important thing is to get some clear and concise constructive news on China,” Hogan added.
Hogan had expected that a deal would be reached around the midterms. But with the key elections set for this Tuesday, Nov. 6, he acknowledges the probability is extremely low.
No ‘tit for tat’
Yet, Hogan said he’s still in the camp a trade resolution will eventually come. “Any whiff of good news, any whiff of constructive news is actually going to propel this market forward,” the Wall Street veteran said.
If true, that would be welcome news for Wall Street.
The SP 500 is 7.4 percent away from its all-time intraday high of 2,940.91 hit on Sept. 21. After gaining 2.4 percent in the week ending Nov. 2, it’s now up 1.85 percent so far this year.
For now, Hogan is maintaining his SP year-end forecast of 3000, which would be a gain of almost 10 percent from current levels. He expected the index to be trading at 3300 by the end of next year.
“If we get into the middle of November and we’re still in this tit for tat or if we get to a point where we increase the number of tariffs we put on Chinese imports, that target has got to come down not only for this year, but for next year as well,” Hogan said.
Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.
B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan sees China trade tensions as a catalyst that could send stocks lower.
Apple is on pace to post its worst day in more than two years on the back of its fourth-quarter earnings report. This is what market experts have to say about the move.
Semiconductor stocks took a hit Friday amid a sweeping technology rout, but were still on track for their best week in more than two years.
LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick says: “Eighteen out of 18 times, the SP was higher from the October low close — up just over 10 percent on average.”
B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan says a resolution on China would rekindle the historic market rally. He discusses with Eric Chemi.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR, breaks down his market outlook, his top plays now and more in this interview with Eric Chemi.
Mark Newton of Newton Advisors and Michael Bapis with Vios Advisors at Rockefeller Capital Management discuss the tech sector with Eric Chemi.
Trades to Watch
Gina Sanchez of Chantico Global says a North Korean attack, should one occur, isn’t likely to cause significant long-term market impact.
Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management says the ISM non-manufacturing report is key to watch ahead the jobs data released Friday.
Chad Morganlander of Washington Crossing Advisors is watching the dollar this week and expects it’ll begin to strengthen heading into the second half of the year.
Stacey Gilbert is the head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna.
Managing Director, ACG Analytics
Managing Director, Head of Technical Analysis, Evercore ISI
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Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network’s Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J. Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC’s Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC’s “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET). In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.
Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.
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