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Wall Street bull sees stocks testing correction lows one more time

The SP 500 Index may be coming off its best week since March 9, but long-time bull Art Hogan doesn’t believe the market’s wild swings are safely in the past.

B. Riley FBR’s chief market strategist predicts stocks will retest to their October 29 correction lows, he recently told CNBC.

“We are going to see one more test before we escape back up into bullish territory — probably the middle of November and into December,” he said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

He expected U.S.-China trade tensions, which whipsawed stocks on Friday, will be the overwhelming factor in the next leg down. President Donald Trump is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jingping at the G20 Summit in Argentina next month, amid conflicting statements from the administration on whether progress had been made between the world’s two largest economies.

“The most difficult headwind for this market to get over is China,” Hogan said, making clear that his case is contingent on how long the trade war lasts — and whether it intensifies.

“The most important thing is to get some clear and concise constructive news on China,” Hogan added.

Hogan had expected that a deal would be reached around the midterms. But with the key elections set for this Tuesday, Nov. 6, he acknowledges the probability is extremely low.

No ‘tit for tat’

Yet, Hogan said he’s still in the camp a trade resolution will eventually come. “Any whiff of good news, any whiff of constructive news is actually going to propel this market forward,” the Wall Street veteran said.

If true, that would be welcome news for Wall Street.

The SP 500 is 7.4 percent away from its all-time intraday high of 2,940.91 hit on Sept. 21. After gaining 2.4 percent in the week ending Nov. 2, it’s now up 1.85 percent so far this year.

For now, Hogan is maintaining his SP year-end forecast of 3000, which would be a gain of almost 10 percent from current levels. He expected the index to be trading at 3300 by the end of next year.

“If we get into the middle of November and we’re still in this tit for tat or if we get to a point where we increase the number of tariffs we put on Chinese imports, that target has got to come down not only for this year, but for next year as well,” Hogan said.

Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.

Stocks aren’t out of the woods just yet, says veteran strategist Art Hogan

Stephanie Landsman

Trading Nation

  • Justin Jared Parsonage rides Man Up during the PBR Monster Energy Tour Professional Bull Riders (PBR) event on May 19, 2018 at the Centre Videotron in Quebec City, Quebec, Canada.

    B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan sees China trade tensions as a catalyst that could send stocks lower.

  • Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook attends China Development Forum (CDF) 2018 at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on March 24, 2018 in Beijing, China. China Development Forum (CDF) 2018 is hosted by the Development Research Center of the State Council of China on March 24-26 in Beijing. 

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  • In this Feb 23, 1945 file photo, U.S. Marines of the 28th Regiment, 5th Division, raise the American flag atop Mt. Suribachi, Iwo Jima, Japan. 

    LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick says: “Eighteen out of 18 times, the SP was higher from the October low close — up just over 10 percent on average.” 


  • Wall Street bull sees stocks testing correction lows one more time

    B. Riley FBR’s Art Hogan says a resolution on China would rekindle the historic market rally. He discusses with Eric Chemi.

  • Stocks aren’t out of the woods just yet, says veteran strategist Art Hogan

    Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR, breaks down his market outlook, his top plays now and more in this interview with Eric Chemi.

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    Gina Sanchez of Chantico Global says a North Korean attack, should one occur, isn’t likely to cause significant long-term market impact.

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    Chad Morganlander of Washington Crossing Advisors is watching the dollar this week and expects it’ll begin to strengthen heading into the second half of the year.

Trader Bios

  • Stacey Gilbert

    Stacey Gilbert is the head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna.

  • Managing Director, ACG Analytics

  • Rich Ross

    Managing Director, Head of Technical Analysis, Evercore ISI


Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network’s Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC’s Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC’s “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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